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Evidence-based biotech investing

Academic research, white paper summaries, and strategy guides on using SEC filings, insider signals, and fund convergence to find biotech alpha.

Academic Research6 min read·

Verdad's Biotech White Paper, Part 1: Why Specialist Fund Holdings Predict Returns

Verdad Capital's 2026 white paper finds that stocks most heavily owned by specialist biotech funds returned 20% annualized vs. -2% for those least owned. We break down the expert signals.

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Academic Research6 min read·

Verdad's Biotech White Paper, Part 2: Why Traditional Quant Factors Fail — and What Works Instead

Part 2 of our breakdown of Verdad's 2026 white paper. Traditional value and momentum are inverted in biotech. Verdad rebuilt them using 130,000 clinical trials — and found a 38-point return spread.

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Academic Research7 min read·

Short Interest, Days to Cover, and Why Short Sellers Are the Third Expert Signal in Biotech

Academic research shows short interest predicts negative returns — especially in biotech. Days to cover is the key metric. Here's how to read it and why BiotechEdge now tracks it.

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Academic Research8 min read·

What Academic Research Says About Form 4 Insider Trading in Biotech Small Caps

Decades of research show insider purchases predict abnormal returns — especially in small-cap biotech where information asymmetry is highest. Here's what the data says and how to use it.

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Strategy5 min read·

Fund Convergence: The Highest-Conviction Signal in Biotech Investing

When 3+ specialist biotech hedge funds independently build positions in the same company, pay attention. Here's why convergence is the strongest public signal we've found.

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Strategy6 min read·

Cash Runway and Catalyst Timing: Why Both Matter for Biotech Investors

A company with a PDUFA in 6 months but only 4 months of cash is a different bet than one funded through approval. Here's how to combine runway and catalyst data.

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